Development Without Energy? Assessing Future Scenarios of Energy Consumption in Developing Countries

We analyze the relationship between economic development and energy consumption in the context of greenhouse gas mitigation. The main contribution of this work is to compare estimates of energy thresholds in the form of minimum energy requirements to reach high levels of development with output projections of per capita final energy supply from a group of integrated assessment models (IAMs). Scenarios project that reductions of carbon emissions in developing countries will be achieved not only by means of decreasing the carbon intensity, but also by making a significant break with the historically observed relationship between energy use and economic growth. We discuss the feasibility of achieving, on time scales acceptable for developing countries, both decarbonization and the needed structural changes or efficiency improvements, concluding that the decreases in energy consumption implied in numerous mitigation scenarios are unlikely to be achieved without endangering sustainable development objectives. To underscore the importance of basic energy needs also in the future, the role of infrastructure is highlighted, using steel and cement as examples

Collective motion of active Brownian particles in one dimension

We analyze a model of active Brownian particles with non-linear friction and velocity coupling in one spatial dimension. The model exhibits two modes of motion observed in biological swarms: A disordered phase with vanishing mean velocity and an ordered phase with finite mean velocity. Starting from the microscopic Langevin equations, we derive mean-field equations of the collective dynamics. We identify the fixed points of the mean-field equations corresponding to the two modes and analyze their stability with respect to the model parameters. Finally, we compare our analytical findings with numerical simulations of the microscopic model.Comment: submitted to Eur. Phys J. Special Topic

Understanding the carbon dioxide removal range in 1.5 °C compatible and high overshoot pathways

Carbon dioxide removal (CDR) features prominently in the 1.5 °C compatible and high overshoot pathways in the IPCC's Sixth Assessment Report (AR6, WGIII). However, the amount of CDR varies considerably among scenarios. We analyze the range in CDR volumes in AR6 WGIII pathways by exploring relationships between variables as potential driving forces, focusing on CDR in 2050 and scenario properties linked to reaching net-zero CO2. It is also shown how the relative and absolute contribution of CDR to total mitigation up until reaching net-zero CO2 substantially differs across scenarios. The volumes of CDR in 2050 and 2100 and the cumulative amount throughout the 21st century were most strongly correlated to the degree to which CO2 emissions are reduced as a means of reaching net-zero CO2. CDR in 2050 is also substantially correlated to the timing of net-zero CO2. The robustness of the analyzed relationships was evaluated by comparing different scenario filtering and data-cleaning approaches. Beyond filtering and cleaning, additional factors that influence CDR deployment in scenarios, such as discount rates, carbon price trajectories, and scenario design choices, were discussed

Low Reynolds number hydrodynamics of asymmetric, oscillating dumbbell pairs

Active dumbbell suspensions constitute one of the simplest model system for collective swimming at low Reynolds number. Generalizing recent work, we derive and analyze stroke-averaged equations of motion that capture the effective hydrodynamic far-field interaction between two oscillating, asymmetric dumbbells in three space dimensions. Time-averaged equations of motion, as those presented in this paper, not only yield a considerable speed-up in numerical simulations, they may also serve as a starting point when deriving continuum equations for the macroscopic dynamics of multi-swimmer suspensions. The specific model discussed here appears to be particularly useful in this context, since it allows one to investigate how the collective macroscopic behavior is affected by changes in the microscopic symmetry of individual swimmers.Comment: 10 pages, to appear in EPJ Special Topic

Integrated Climate-Change Assessment Scenarios and Carbon Dioxide Removal

To halt climate change this century, we must reduce carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions from human activities to net zero. Any emission sources, such as in the energy or land-use sectors, must be balanced by natural or technological carbon sinks that facilitate CO2 removal (CDR) from the atmosphere. Projections of demand for large-scale CDR are based on an integrated scenario framework for emission scenarios composed of emission profiles as well as alternative socio-economic development trends and social values consistent with them. The framework, however, was developed years before systematic reviews of CDR entered the literature. This primer provides an overview of the purposes of scenarios in climate-change research and how they are used. It also introduces the integrated scenario framework and why it came about. CDR studies using the scenario framework, as well as its limitations, are discussed. Possible future developments for the scenario framework are highlighted, especially in relation to CDR

Future air pollution in the Shared Socio-economic Pathways

Emissions of air pollutants such as sulfur and nitrogen oxides and particulates have significant health impacts as well as effects on natural and anthropogenic ecosystems. These same emissions also can change atmospheric chemistry and the planetary energy balance, thereby impacting global and regional climate. Long-term scenarios for air pollutant emissions are needed as inputs to global climate and chemistry models, and for analysis linking air pollutant impacts across sectors. In this paper we present methodology and results for air pollutant emissions in Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSP) scenarios. We first present a set of three air pollution narratives that describe high, central, and low pollution control ambitions over the 21st century. These narratives are then translated into quantitative guidance for use in integrated assessment models. The resulting pollutant emission trajectories under the SSP scenarios cover a wider range than the scenarios used in previous international climate model comparisons. In the SSP3 and SSP4 scenarios, where economic, institutional and technological limitations slow air quality improvements, global pollutant emissions over the 21st century can be comparable to current levels. Pollutant emissions in the SSP1 scenarios fall to low levels due to the assumption of technological advances and successful global action to control emissions

Active Brownian Particles. From Individual to Collective Stochastic Dynamics

We review theoretical models of individual motility as well as collective dynamics and pattern formation of active particles. We focus on simple models of active dynamics with a particular emphasis on nonlinear and stochastic dynamics of such self-propelled entities in the framework of statistical mechanics. Examples of such active units in complex physico-chemical and biological systems are chemically powered nano-rods, localized patterns in reaction-diffusion system, motile cells or macroscopic animals. Based on the description of individual motion of point-like active particles by stochastic differential equations, we discuss different velocity-dependent friction functions, the impact of various types of fluctuations and calculate characteristic observables such as stationary velocity distributions or diffusion coefficients. Finally, we consider not only the free and confined individual active dynamics but also different types of interaction between active particles. The resulting collective dynamical behavior of large assemblies and aggregates of active units is discussed and an overview over some recent results on spatiotemporal pattern formation in such systems is given.Comment: 161 pages, Review, Eur Phys J Special-Topics, accepte

Was sind negative Emissionen, und warum brauchen wir sie? Akademienprojekt ‘Energiesysteme der Zukunft’ (ESYS)

Selbst mit ambitionierteren Maßnahmen zur Vermeidung von Emissionen lässt sich Klimaneutralität und damit die Stabilisierung der Temperatur nicht mehr erreichen. Darauf weist der Weltklimarat in seinem sechsten Sachstandsbericht hin. Zusätzlich zu einer schnelleren Reduktion der Emissionen muss CO2 der Atmosphäre entzogen und anschließend eingelagert werden, um nicht vermeidbare Restemissionen auszugleichen, etwa aus der Landwirtschaft. Sogenannte „negative Emissionen“ können zum Beispiel durch Aufforstung erzeugt werden. Es gibt aber eine Reihe weiterer natürlicher und technischer Verfahren, den entnommenen Kohlenstoff dauerhaft einzulagern und aus der Atmosphäre fernzuhalten. In diesem „Kurz erklärt“ skizzieren Fachleute des Akademienprojekts ESYS den aktuellen Forschungsstand, erläutern Verfahren zur CO2-Entnahme und benennen deren jeweiligen Vor- und Nachteile

The shared socioeconomic pathways and their energy, land use, and greenhouse gas emissions implications: An overview

This paper presents the overview of the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) and their energy, land use, and emissions implications. The SSPs are part of a new scenario framework, established by the climate change research community in order to facilitate the integrated analysis of future climate impacts, vulnerabilities, adaptation, and mitigation. The pathways were developed over the last years as a joint community effort and describe plausible major global developments that together would lead in the future to different challenges for mitigation and adaptation to climate change. The SSPs are based on five narratives describing alternative socio-economic developments, including sustainable development, regional rivalry, inequality, fossil-fueled development, and a middle-of-the-road development. The long-term demographic and economic projections of the SSPs depict a wide uncertainty range consistent with the scenario literature. A multi-model approach was used for the elaboration of the energy, land-use and the emissions trajectories of SSP-based scenarios. The baseline scenarios lead to global energy consumption of 500-1100 EJ in 2100, and feature vastly different land-use dynamics, ranging from a possible reduction in cropland area up to a massive expansion by more than 700 million hectares by 2100. The associated annual CO2 emissions of the baseline scenarios range from about 25 GtCO2 to more than 120 GtCO2 per year by 2100. With respect to mitigation, we find that associated costs strongly depend on three factors: 1) the policy assumptions, 2) the socio-economic narrative, and 3) the stringency of the target. The carbon price for reaching the target of 2.6 W/m2 differs in our analysis thus by about a factor of three across the SSP scenarios. Moreover, many models could not reach this target from the SSPs with high mitigation challenges. While the SSPs were designed to represent different mitigation and adaptation challenges, the resulting narratives and quantifications span a wide range of different futures broadly representative of the current literature. This allows their subsequent use and development in new assessments and research projects. Critical next steps for the community scenario process will, among others, involve regional and sectorial extensions, further elaboration of the adaptation and impacts dimension, as well as employing the SSP scenarios with the new generation of earth system models as part of the 6th climate model intercomparison project (CMIP6)

Fluctuation-Driven Flocking Movement in Three Dimensions and Scale-Free Correlation

Recent advances in the study of flocking behavior have permitted more sophisticated analyses than previously possible. The concepts of “topological distances” and “scale-free correlations” are important developments that have contributed to this improvement. These concepts require us to reconsider the notion of a neighborhood when applied to theoretical models. Previous work has assumed that individuals interact with neighbors within a certain radius (called the “metric distance”). However, other work has shown that, assuming topological interactions, starlings interact on average with the six or seven nearest neighbors within a flock. Accounting for this observation, we previously proposed a metric-topological interaction model in two dimensions. The goal of our model was to unite these two interaction components, the metric distance and the topological distance, into one rule. In our previous study, we demonstrated that the metric-topological interaction model could explain a real bird flocking phenomenon called scale-free correlation, which was first reported by Cavagna et al. In this study, we extended our model to three dimensions while also accounting for variations in speed. This three-dimensional metric-topological interaction model displayed scale-free correlation for velocity and orientation. Finally, we introduced an additional new feature of the model, namely, that a flock can store and release its fluctuations